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目的了解甘肃省2013年手足口病空间分布特征,探讨手足口病发病高聚集区域。方法利用Geo Da1.60软件进行全局和局部空间自相关分析,分析指标选择Moran’s I系数,采用Flexible 3.1和Sa TScan 9.0软件进行不规则和规则空间扫描,利用Arc GIS 9.3软件在地图上呈现发病聚集区域。结果甘肃省2013年手足口病发病分布呈显著的聚集性分布(P<0.01)。局部自相关分析结果显示,手足口病发病的热点区域主要是兰州市的部分县(区)、天水市的麦积区和酒泉市的瓜州县,冷点区域主要分布在金昌市、临夏州、甘南州、定西市、陇南市的部分县(区)。空间扫描分析显示,高发病率最大可能聚集区为兰州市和白银市的部分县(区)(P<0.01),次可能聚集区域为天水市和酒泉市的部分县(区)(P<0.01)。结论甘肃省2013年手足口病报告发病率存在空间聚集性,针对本次研究所确定的聚集区域,应采取有效的防控措施,加强健康教育,防止暴发疫情的发生,同时关注重点区域的监测,及时发出预测预警信息,最大程度的控制手足口病的传播和扩散。
Objective To understand the spatial distribution characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Gansu Province in 2013 and to explore the high-incidence area of hand-foot-mouth disease. Methods The global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed using Geo Da1.60 software. The index was selected as Moran’s I coefficient, and irregular and regular spatial scanning was conducted by using Flexible 3.1 and Sa TScan 9.0 software. ArcGIS 9.3 software was used to display the incidence of aggregation on the map area. Results The distribution of HFMD in Gansu Province in 2013 was significantly aggregated (P <0.01). Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the hot spot areas of hand, foot and mouth disease were mainly Lanzhou City, part of the county (district), Tianshui Maiji District and Jiuquan City, Guazhou County, cold spots are mainly located in Jinchang City, Linxia , Gannan Prefecture, Dingxi City, Longnan City, part of the county (district). Spatial scanning analysis showed that the highest possible incidence area of high incidence was in some counties (districts) of Lanzhou and Baiyin (P <0.01), and the possible aggregation areas were in some counties (districts) of Tianshui and Jiuquan (P <0.01) ). Conclusion The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease reported in Gansu province in 2013 was spatially aggregated. For the agglomeration areas identified in this study, effective prevention and control measures should be taken to strengthen health education to prevent the outbreak of outbreaks. At the same time, attention should be paid to the monitoring of key areas , Issued timely warning information, the maximum degree of control hand-foot-mouth disease spread and spread.