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选取拒马河为研究对象,采用SWAT模型和River2D模型,利用IPCC第五次报告中的BNU-ESM-RCP4.5模式的模拟数据,对2018~2060年紫荆关水文站附近3 km长的拒马河河段河道内径流量和麦穗鱼(Pseudorasbora parva)栖息地面积进行了模拟和分析。研究结果表明,1956~2015年期间,河道内年径流量呈减少趋势,平均每年径流量减少0.1×108m~3,2018~2060年期间,年径流量呈增加趋势,平均每年径流量增加0.05×108m~3;河道内年生态需水量为4.11×108~7.42×108m~3,模拟的2018~2030年期间河道内年径流量难以满足其生态需水量的需求,而2031~2060年期间的年径流量基本能够满足生态需水量的需求;除秋季外,其它季节的径流量难以满足生态需水量的需求;2018~2060年期间,河道内的麦穗鱼最适物理栖息地面积呈增加趋势,且秋季其栖息地面积明显增加。
Taking the Juma River as the research object, using SWAT model and River2D model, by using the simulated data of BNU-ESM-RCP4.5 model in the fifth report of IPCC, the refusal of 3 km near Zijingguan Hydrologic Station from 2018 to 2060 The runoff of the river and the habitat area of Pseudorasbora parva were simulated and analyzed. The results showed that the annual runoff decreased from 1956 to 2015, and the annual average runoff decreased by 0.1 × 108m ~ 3. During the period of 2018 ~ 2060, annual runoff increased with an average annual runoff of 0.05 × 108m ~ 3. The annual ecological water requirement in the river course is 4.11 × 108 ~ 7.42 × 108m ~ 3. The simulated annual runoff in the river from 2018 to 2030 can not meet the needs of its ecological water demand. However, the annual water demand during the period from 2031 to 2060 In addition to the autumn, the runoff in other seasons is difficult to meet the demand of ecological water demand. During 2018 ~ 2060, the optimum physical habitat area of earwiches in the river courses increased, And its habitat area increased significantly in autumn.