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利用偏最小二乘回归法(PLS)对漳州卷烟消费数据和影响卷烟消费的主要经济因素进行了分析。结果表明:目前漳州卷烟消费中,一、二类卷烟增长较快,三、四类卷烟是主要的卷烟消费类型,五类卷烟逐步减少。预测模型对自变量的累计信息利用率达到了99.2%,同时能够解释因变量99.6%的变异信息,累计交叉统计有效性达到0.99,预测值与观测值组成的数据点都在回归图的对角线附近分布,且回归系数达到0.9966,该模型的拟合效果较好。居民消费价格基定指数对卷烟消费增长影响最大,随着GDP增长和各产业快速发展,以及人民生活水平的提高,卷烟消费需求将会增加,适当的提高卷烟零售价格可以减少卷烟消费量。
The partial least squares regression (PLS) was used to analyze the Zhangzhou cigarette consumption data and the main economic factors that affect cigarette consumption. The results show that at present, the consumption of cigarettes in Zhangzhou is higher than that of cigarettes in category one and two, while cigarettes in category three and four are the main consumption types of cigarettes. The number of cigarettes in five categories is gradually decreasing. The forecasting model used 99.2% of the cumulative information of independent variables and explained 99.6% of the dependent variable. The cumulative cross-validation was 0.99, and the data points of the predicted and observed values were all in the diagonal of the regression graph Line near the distribution, and the regression coefficient of 0.9966, the fitting effect of the model is better. The consumer price base index has the greatest impact on the growth of cigarette consumption. With the rapid growth of GDP and industries, as well as the improvement of people’s living standard, the consumption demand of cigarettes will increase. Appropriately increasing the retail price of cigarettes will reduce the consumption of cigarettes.