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活动层厚度变化将会对多年冻土区生态系统、地气间能水平衡和碳循环等产生重要影响。利用Stefan公式模拟了1981-2010年青藏高原多年冻土区活动层厚度的分布和空间变化特征。结果表明:多年冻土区活动层厚度平均为2.39 m,活动层厚度在羌塘盆地最小,在多年冻土区边缘、祁连山、西昆仑山、念青唐古拉山活动层厚度较大。在气候变化条件下,青藏高原多年冻土区活动层厚度呈整体增大趋势,在1981-2010年,活动层厚度的变化量为-1.54~2.24 m,变化率为-5.90~10.13 cm·a~(-1),平均每年变化1.29 cm。活动层增厚趋势与年平均气温增大的趋势基本一致,这说明气候变化对活动层厚度变化有很大的影响。
Changes in the thickness of the active layer will have a significant impact on the permafrost ecosystem, water balance between energy and carbon cycle and so on. Stefan formula was used to simulate the distribution and spatial variation of the active layer thickness in the permafrost region of the Tibetan Plateau from 1981 to 2010. The results show that the average thickness of active layer in permafrost zone is 2.39 m, and the thickness of active layer is the smallest in the Qiangtang basin. At the edge of permafrost, the active layer thickens in Qilian Mountains, West Kunlun Mountains and the Nyainqentanglha Mountains. Under the condition of climate change, the thickness of active layer in permafrost region shows an overall increasing trend. From 1981 to 2010, the variation of active layer thickness is -1.54 ~ 2.24 m, and the variation rate is -5.90 ~ 10.13 cm · a ~ (-1), the average annual change of 1.29 cm. The thickening trend of the active layer is basically consistent with the increase of the annual average temperature, which shows that the climate change has a great influence on the thickness of the active layer.