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本文对目前正在流行和逐步推广的地震危险性分析的两种模式(即断层破裂模式和点源模式)进行了比较分析。在两种模式的地震发生模型、震级分布等假定基本一致的情况下,结合具有详细地震地质资料的北京西直门地区,分别按两种模式做了该地区的地震危险性分析。结果表明,依点源模型中计算的结果比依断层破裂模式计算的结果小。而断层破裂模式考虑了断层破裂的影响,其合理性高于点源模式。对于重大工程项目做地震危险性分析时,本文建议使用断层破裂模式,工程决策及设计人员应了解分析方法的差异及各种参数的不确定性。
This article compares and analyzes the two models of seismic risk analysis that are currently being popularized and gradually promoted (ie fault rupture model and point source model). In the case that the assumptions of the earthquake occurrence model and magnitude distribution of the two models are basically the same, combined with detailed seismic geological data of the Beijing Xizhimen area, seismic hazard analysis of the area was done according to two models. The results show that the calculated results from the point source model are smaller than those calculated by the fault rupture model. The fault rupture mode takes into account the effect of fault rupture, which is more reasonable than the point source model. When seismic risk analysis is performed for major engineering projects, this paper recommends the use of fault rupture models. Engineering decision-making and designers should understand the differences in analytical methods and the uncertainties of various parameters.