磁县是我国食管癌的高发区，１９７４年成立了肿瘤登记处，积累了宝贵的发病资料。本文利用磁县１９７４年一１９９６年食管癌发病资料进行流行病学研究分析，并用灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型预测１９９７年一２００１年食管癌发病率趋势。为今后的防治工作提供依据。１资料与 Cixian County is a high-risk area of ​​esophageal cancer in our country. In 1974, the Cancer Registry was established and valuable disease information was accumulated. In this paper, the epidemiological analysis of the esophageal cancer incidence data from Cixian County in 1974-1996 was used, and the gray system GM (1,1) model was used to predict the incidence of esophageal cancer in 1997-2001. Provide the basis for future prevention and control work. 1 information and