美国经济正陷入七年内第二次泡沫后衰退时期。美国经济的衰退将产生全球性影响。政策的制定必须在美国资产泡沫和储蓄偏低双重问题的背景下进行。我们更需要严格的沃克(Volcker)式货币管理方法—而不是偏向市场的格林斯潘-伯南克式方法。货币调整不应该被看作是治愈美国经济衰退的妙药,也不能被当作是针对全球失衡的良方,这种失衡是由美国资产导致的消费增长造成。打压中国会把世界推向保护主义。 The U.S. economy is falling into its second post-bubble recession in seven years. The downturn in the U.S. economy will have a global impact. Policies must be formulated in the context of the double asset bubble and low saving in the United States. We need a more rigorous Volcker-style approach to currency management than a market-oriented Greenspan-Bernanke approach. Currency adjustment should not be seen as a cure for the U.S. recession, nor as a recipe for global imbalances caused by rising consumer spending on American assets. Suppressing China will push the world for protectionism.