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在今天关于3G的讨论中,许多人反复提起西方3G泡沫的教训,告诫中国的3G决策者要慎之又慎。可见,西方3G泡沫的产生和破灭虽已过去数年,但其阴影仍留在人们心中。然而一个令人忧心的事实是,人们对3G泡沫的总结常常陷于表面化的、肤浅的层面,而对其实质缺乏深入思考,不少人甚至对3G泡沫的来龙去脉、前因后果还不甚清楚。那么,西方的3G泡沫究竟是怎么回事?我们应该如何正确地总结其经验和教训?是仅仅看到其表面,还是深入探究其根源和实质,得到对我们有用的启示?是将西方3G泡沫的消极结论简单化地套用到中国,还是认真分析研究中国与西方不同的产业发展背景,寻找中国产业发展的机遇?笔者认为,对3G泡沫进行系统的、全面的回顾与反思,在今天仍是必要的、有意义的。下面,笔者将对西方3G泡沫的历史进行回顾和总结,探讨其本质,从而得到对我们有用的启示,帮助我们加深对3G产业发展的认识,更加清楚中国3G产业发展的正确方向。
In today’s discussion on 3G, many people repeatedly raised the lesson of the western 3G bubble and warned China’s 3G policymakers to be cautious. Can be seen that the emergence and disintegration of the western 3G bubble although a few years ago, but its shadow still remain in people’s minds. However, it is a worrying fact that the conclusion of the 3G bubble is often superficial and superficial. However, the real lack of deep thinking about it has led many people to even the insularity of the 3G bubble. The cause and effect are still not clear. So what is going on with the Western 3G bubble? How can we correctly sum up our experiences and lessons? Whether we can only see the surface or explore its roots and essence in depth, and get some useful inspiration from us? The simplistic application of the negative conclusion to China, or a careful analysis of different industries in China and the West background of the development, looking for opportunities for the development of China’s industry? The author believes that the 3G bubble of a systematic, comprehensive review and reflection today is still Necessary, meaningful. Next, I will review and summarize the history of the western 3G bubble to explore its essence, so as to obtain useful enlightenment for us, help us to deepen our understanding of the development of 3G industry and make it more clear about the correct direction for the development of China’s 3G industry.