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随着近十年来我国向社会主义市场经济的过渡,经济的内在矛盾发生了巨大的变化,我国的物价水平经历了从高通货膨胀到通货紧缩的历程。我国出现的通货紧缩有着复杂的背景,既与我国处于市场化转轨过程有关,又与体制上一些特殊因素有关。因此本文试图利用TARCH模型和变参数模型从货币政策对物价影响的非对称效应,通货紧缩的货币原因,总供给曲线和产出缺口,以及消费需求、企业效益对物价的影响等多视角来定量分析和探讨我国转轨时期经济高增长与通货紧缩并存的原因。
With the transition from our country to the socialist market economy in the past decade or so, the inherent contradictions in the economy have undergone tremendous changes. The price level in our country has gone through periods of high inflation to deflation. The deflation that has emerged in our country has a complicated background, which is both related to our country’s being in the process of market-oriented transition and to some special factors in the system. Therefore, this paper attempts to use the TARCH model and the variable parameter model from the perspective of asymmetric effects of monetary policy on prices, monetary deflation reasons, the total supply curve and output gap, as well as consumer demand, the impact of corporate profits on prices and other multi-perspective Analyze and probe into the reasons for the coexistence of high economic growth and deflation in the transitional period of our country.