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采用一维准定常流内弹道计算模型作为性能仿真模型，选定燃烧室压强及推力作为输出参数。在广泛收集某固体发动机有关数据的基础上，对决定发动机性能的基本参数进行了统计分析，根据其实际的数据散布程度和对性能影响的大小选定ρｐ、ｃ＊和α作为随机变量，通过严格的统计检验确定它们的分布特性，然后应用Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ数字仿真法，编制出相应的计算程序。在计算机上完成的随机抽样和性能仿真计算分别得到了常温，高温和低温条件下的Ｐｃ－ｔ模拟曲线和性能可靠度。理论计算与地面点火试验结果吻合良好。
The one-dimensional quasi-steady flow internal trajectory calculation model is adopted as the performance simulation model, and the pressure and thrust of the combustion chamber are selected as the output parameters. Based on the extensive collection of data on a solid engine, the basic parameters that determine the performance of the engine were statistically analyzed. Based on the actual data spread and the influence on the performance, ρp, c * and α were selected as the random variables Strict statistical tests to determine their distribution characteristics, and then use Monte-Carlo digital simulation method, the preparation of the corresponding calculation program. The PC-t simulation curves and performance reliability under normal temperature, high temperature and low temperature were obtained respectively by random sampling and performance simulation calculated on the computer. The theoretical calculation is in good agreement with the ground ignition test.