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目的探讨医院门诊人次变化特征,为医院提供科学有效的门诊统计数据,使门诊医疗服务得到进一步的提高。方法对某院2002年至2011年门诊人次进行直线回归分析,并计算季节指数。结果直线回归方程有显著的统计学意义(P<0.001),回归平方和占总平方和的91.1%,回归系数为正值,显示门诊人次有直线上升趋势,每年大约增加21222人次。季节指数计算结果显示门诊人次有明显的季节波动趋势。二季度和三季度季节指数都大于100%,是门诊流量高峰期,一季度的季节指数最低,是门诊流量的低谷期。4月至9月以及11月的季节指数都大于100%,是门诊流量的高峰期,其它月份的季节指数都小于100%,是门诊流量的低谷期,其中2月份是门诊流量的最低谷。结论医院应根据门诊人次的变化特征优化配置人员和设备。
Objective To explore the changing characteristics of hospital outpatient visits and to provide the hospital with scientific and effective outpatient statistics so that outpatient medical services can be further improved. Methods A linear regression analysis of outpatient visits from 2002 to 2011 in a hospital was conducted, and the season index was calculated. Results The linear regression equation had significant statistical significance (P <0.001). The sum of squares of regression accounted for 91.1% of the total sum of squares, and the regression coefficient was positive. It showed that there was a straight upward trend in the number of outpatients and an increase of 21222 person-times each year. The seasonal index calculation results show that there is a clear trend of seasonal fluctuations in outpatients. The second and third quarters of the season index are greater than 100%, is the out-patient flow peak, the lowest in the first quarter of the season index, is the out-patient flow trough. The seasonal indices from April to September and November were both above 100%, which was the peak of outpatient traffic. The season indices of other months were all less than 100%, which was the low point for outpatient traffic. February was the lowest outpatient traffic. Conclusion The hospital should be based on the changing characteristics of outpatient visits to optimize the allocation of personnel and equipment.