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本文基于复杂网络的理论方法,采用2012年投入产出表数据构建了京津冀三地产业复杂网络模型,提出了从整体结构和个体特征两个方面进行产业关联研究的指标体系,并对三地产业做了实证和比较分析。结果显示,京津冀三地产业结构具有一定同构性,其中,京津相似度达到60%,京冀和津冀也达到50%。服务业与高端制造业是北京的经济发展支柱,服务业对北京地区经济的综合影响是工业综合影响的1.3倍;以能源化工业和高端制造业为主的工业和服务业是天津经济发展的两大引擎,其中,天津高端制造业对天津地区经济影响是北京高端制造业对北京地区经济影响的近1.5倍,而服务业综合影响仅为北京的64%;冶金与制造相关产业在河北经济发展中发挥着主导作用,采掘与冶金类产业对河北经济的综合影响是北京、天津对各自地区经济影响之和的2.1倍,而服务业发展比较滞后。最后,本文根据研究结论从发挥三地产业发展优势,构建三地一体化的产业价值链以实现三地协同发展的角度提出了相关政策建议。
Based on the theory of complex networks, this paper uses the input-output table data of 2012 to build a complex network model of three industries in Beijing, Tianjin and Ji and puts forward the index system of industrial association research from two aspects of overall structure and individual characteristics. Real estate industry has done a positive and comparative analysis. The results show that the industrial structure of the three places in Beijing, Tianjin and Ji has certain isomorphism with the similarity of 60% in Beijing and Tianjin and 50% in Beijing-Hebei and Tianjin-Hebei. Service industry and high-end manufacturing are the pillars of Beijing’s economic development. The comprehensive impact of service industry on Beijing’s economy is 1.3 times that of the comprehensive industrial impact; the industries and service industries dominated by energy-based and high-end manufacturing are the economic development of Tianjin Two major engines, of which Tianjin high-end manufacturing sector in Tianjin economic impact is high-end Beijing’s manufacturing economy in Beijing nearly 1.5 times the economic impact of the integrated service sector only 64% of Beijing; metallurgical and manufacturing-related industries in Hebei economy The leading role played by the development is that mining and metallurgical industries have a combined impact on Hebei’s economy of 2.1 times the sum of the economic impacts of Beijing and Tianjin on their respective regions while the development of the service industry lags behind. Finally, according to the conclusions of the study, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations from the perspective of giving full play to the advantages of the three industries and constructing the industrial value chain of the three places to realize the coordinated development of the three places.