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构建了引入工资粘性的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,利用贝叶斯方法对模型进行估计,着重研究货币政策冲击和能源价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响。结果表明:(1)能源价格的上涨短期内对产出的影响是正面的,但其负面影响却是长期的;(2)能源价格的上涨和利率的提高都加剧了通货膨胀,但能源价格波动对通货膨胀的影响程度明显不如货币政策;(3)五种外生冲击中,货币政策冲击和能源价格冲击对经济的影响最大,货币冲击持续的时间最长,能源价格冲击影响的强度最大。因此,应对能源价格波动、稳定经济增长需要各项政策的配合。
A dynamic random stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates wage stickiness was constructed. The Bayesian approach was used to estimate the model, focusing on the impact of monetary policy shocks and energy price fluctuations on China’s macroeconomics. The results show that: (1) The rise in energy prices has a positive impact on output in the short term, but its negative impact is long-term; (2) Both energy price increases and interest rates increase inflation, but energy prices The impact of fluctuations on inflation is significantly less than that of monetary policy; (3) Of the five exogenous shocks, monetary policy shocks and energy price shocks have the greatest impact on the economy, currency shocks last longest, and energy price shocks have the greatest impact. . Therefore, responding to fluctuations in energy prices and stabilizing economic growth require the cooperation of various policies.