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2013年,中国经济将不得不背负五大重负前行。贷币存量高位运行是“首重”。目前,中国100万亿元M2近在咫尺,中国将不得不背负百万亿元M2“起舞”。庞大的M2规模所积累的通胀压力,也必然会在2013年充分释放开来,物价形势随时可能发生逆转。通胀压力的始终存在,势必会制约货币政策的宽松空间。过热冲动再起是第二大负担。2013年恰逢各地新一届政府任期伊始,而中国经济有着明显的政治周期。在目前制度变革仍未见明显踪迹之际,经济增长定然还会高度依赖固定资产投资,重回超高增速。
In 2013, China’s economy will have to bear the burden of going ahead with its five major tasks. Credit high inventory is “first weight ”. At present, China’s 100 trillion yuan M2 is close at hand, and China will have to bear a hundred billion yuan M2 “dancing ”. The inflationary pressure accumulated by the huge M2 scale will inevitably be fully released in 2013 and the price situation may reverse at any time. The persistence of inflationary pressures is bound to restrain the easing of monetary policy. Overheated impulse to restart is the second largest burden. 2013 coincided with the beginning of the new term of government of all localities, and the Chinese economy has a clear political cycle. At a time when there is still no obvious change in institutional reform, economic growth will certainly be highly dependent on investment in fixed assets and return to super-high growth.