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目的分析山东省1970-2005年食管癌死亡率随年龄及时间的变化趋势。方法利用1970-2005年4次全死因调查资料,计算食管癌死亡率和标化死亡率,利用Joinpoint回归软件分析食管癌死亡率的升降速率。结果 1970-2005年间食管癌标化死亡率表现总体呈下降趋势,1970-1987,1987-1990和1990-2005年3个时期中的年均变化率分别为-0.61%(P<0.05),2.33%(P>0.05)和-1.42%(P<0.05);食管癌死亡率随年龄的增长而升高,在各个年龄段上男性死亡率高于女性。结论山东省食管癌标化死亡率在该期间基本呈下降趋势,与食管癌高发区相似。
Objective To analyze the change trend of esophageal cancer mortality with age and time in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2005. Methods The data of four all-cause investigations from 1970 to 2005 were used to calculate the esophageal cancer mortality and standardized mortality. The incidence of esophageal cancer mortality was analyzed by JoinPoint regression software. Results The standardized mortality of esophageal cancer showed a decreasing trend from 1970 to 2005. The annual average rates of change in the three periods of 1970-1987, 1987-1990 and 1990-2005 were -0.61% (P <0.05), 2.33 % (P> 0.05) and -1.42% (P <0.05). The mortality of esophageal cancer increased with age, and the male mortality rate was higher than that of women in all age groups. Conclusion The standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Shandong Province during this period showed a downward trend, similar to the high incidence of esophageal cancer.