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通过定量研究和统计分析，找出了影响日传染率和潜育期（显症率）的主导因子。经多元逐步回归建立了日传染率的回归方程，Ｒ１＝０．５０４８＋０．０３４３７ＤＴｉ＋１．９８９＊１０３’ＤＰｉ＊ＤＴｉ＋０．４８５９Ｌｎ（Ｗｌｉ）；Ｒ２＝０．０３６０＋０．２７９９ｓｑｒ（ＤＰｉ）＋０．０３８４ＤＴｉ＋０．７６８０Ｌｎ（ＷＩｉ）；Ｒ３＝－０．９０２７＋０．２５６７ｓｑｒ（ＤＰｉ）＋０．０３９３４ＤＴｉ＋０．８８１２Ｌｎ（ＷＩｉ）。其中，Ｒ１，Ｒ２，Ｒ３分别代表病茎秆、茎秆病斑和叶片病斑的日传染率；ＤＰｉ，ＤＴｉ，ＷＩｉ分别代表露时、露温和风速。显症率采用了方程ＰＰ＝ｓｉｎ２（－１１８．６５＋１．２０８９ＴＴ）进行拟合，ＰＰ为累积显症率，ＴＴ为累积有效积温。
Through quantitative research and statistical analysis, identify the dominant factor affecting the daily transmission rate and latent period (significant rate). The regression equation of daily infection rate was established by multivariate stepwise regression. R1 = 0.5048 + 0.03437DTi + 1.989 * 103’DPi * DTi + 0.4859Ln (Wli); R2 = 0.0360 + 0.2799sqr (DPi) + 0.0384DTi + 0.7680Ln WIi); R3 = -0.9027 + 0.2567sqr (DPi) + 0.03934DTi + 0.8812Ln (WIi). Among them, R1, R2 and R3 represent the daily infection rates of diseased stalk, stalk and leaf spot, respectively; DPi, DTi and WIi represent the exposure time, temperature and wind speed respectively. Symptoms were fitted using the equation PP = sin2 (-118.65 + 1.2089TT) for the fit, PP for the cumulative apparent disease rate, TT cumulative effective accumulated temperature.