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企业的集团化经营特征将会对财务困境风险产生重要的影响.在分析集团化经营企业财务风险特征的基础上,考虑集团内部交叉持股复杂度、关联交易程度和相互担保程度对集团化经营企业财务状况的影响,使用KMV模型计算集团化经营企业的违约距离,构建了全新的集团化经营企业财务困境预警的评价体系.并运用Logistic回归模型对集团化经营企业财务困境进行预警.实证结果表明该指标体系与模型具有可行性和有效性.
Based on the analysis of the financial risk characteristics of the CMOs, considering the complexity of cross-shareholdings, the degree of related party transactions and the degree of mutual guarantees within the group, it is of great importance for the group management Enterprise financial status, using the KMV model to calculate the default distance of the group-controlled enterprises and constructing a new evaluation system of the financial distress early-warning of the group-operated enterprises, and using the Logistic regression model to early warning the financial distress of the group-operated enterprises. It shows that the index system and model are feasible and effective.