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文章通过建立面板平滑转移模型实证研究了最终消费率与经济增长之间的非线性关系,得出最终消费率与经济增长之间呈现倒V型关系的结论,并通过门限值的计算得出最优的消费水平为68.12%,在这一门限值以下,消费对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,而高于这一门限值之后,这一促进作用有所减弱。通过进一步的研究发现:我国目前的消费率依旧偏低,对经济增长的促进作用仍有很大的提升空间,为此政府应建立以消费为主导的经济转型,同时优化投资结构,创新对外贸易模式,保持适度的通胀水平,提升消费拉动经济增长的效率。
The paper empirically studies the nonlinear relationship between final consumption rate and economic growth by establishing a panel smooth transition model and draws the conclusion that there is an inverted V-shaped relationship between the final consumption rate and economic growth. The threshold value is calculated The optimal level of consumption is 68.12%. Below this threshold, consumption plays a significant role in promoting economic growth. Above this threshold, this promotion has weakened. Through further research, it is found that the current consumption rate in our country is still low, and there is still room for improvement in the promotion of economic growth. Therefore, the government should establish a consumption-led economic restructuring while optimizing the investment structure and innovating in foreign trade Mode, maintain a modest level of inflation and enhance the efficiency of consumption in driving economic growth.