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(三)估计未来需求的方法现在考查产品的未来需求预测问题。很少产品或劳务宜于简易的预测。很少有这样一种产品,它的绝对水平或趋势完全稳定,并且竞争关系不存在(公用事业)或者不变(纯粹的垄断)。在绝大多数的市场上,市场需求和特定的公司需求并不是每年不变的。于是,可靠的预测成了公司成功的关键。粗略的预测可能导致过度储存,牺牲性的降价,或由于无货错过销售机会。需求越不稳定,则预测的准确性就越重要,预测过程就越复杂。
(c) Methods of estimating future demand Now examine the future demand forecast of the product. Few products or services are easy to predict. There is seldom such a product, its absolute level or trend is completely stable, and the competitive relationship does not exist (utility) or remains unchanged (pure monopoly). In most markets, market demand and specific company needs do not change every year. As a result, reliable predictions have become the key to company success. Rough predictions may lead to overstocking, sacrificial price cuts, or missed sales opportunities due to no stock. The more unstable the demand, the more important the accuracy of the forecast and the more complex the forecasting process.