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要对俄罗斯经济的长期发展趋势做出正确的判断 ,必须考虑俄罗斯社会经济发展的制度基础。俄罗斯经济转轨陷入制度变迁的非效率制度均衡状态 ,是俄罗斯前 1 0年经济陷入转轨性危机 ,并长期衰退的根本原因。普京时期 ,俄罗斯逐渐具备了一系列摆脱经济转轨非效率制度均衡困境的条件 ,从而使俄罗斯有可能走出制度变迁的非效率制度结构均衡困境。世纪之交俄罗斯经济的增长既是俄罗斯制度结构演变向效率方向转化的标志 ,也为制度变迁提供了更为宽松和有利的环境和条件。尽管俄罗斯经济发展还存在一些不确定因素 ,但制度结构的逐步优化使我们有理由对俄罗斯的经济前景抱更加乐观的态度。
To make a correct judgment on the long-term development trend of Russia’s economy, we must consider the institutional foundation of Russia’s social and economic development. Russia’s economic transition into a system of inequality institutional change equilibrium, is the Russian economy into a transitional crisis 10 years ago, and the root causes of long-term recession. During Putin’s period, Russia gradually possessed a series of conditions to get rid of the balanced predicament of the non-efficiency system of economic transition, so that Russia could get out of the balance of inefficient institutional structure of institutional change. At the turn of the century, the growth of the Russian economy is not only a sign of the transformation of Russia’s institutional structure toward efficiency, but also provides a more relaxed and favorable environment and conditions for institutional changes. Despite some uncertainties in Russia’s economic development, the progressive optimization of the institutional structure gives us reason to be more optimistic about Russia’s economic prospects.