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本文截取1999~2007年约10年统计数据,利用动态面板数据模型,分别对东、西部地区11省(市、区)的人均储蓄、人均银行存贷差与经济增长之间的相互关系进行了实证研究。研究结果印证了发展经济学家缪尔达尔之“资本回流”现象在我国的具体表现:在市场力量作用之下,部分西部资本离开本地,源源不断地流向东部地区。造成这种现象的根本原因在于区域金融差距。即相对东部而言,西部地区金融市场根基薄弱,发展迟缓,资本利率偏低等。这些因素对地区经济的发展产生抑制作用,因此,大力改善西部地区金融环境,无疑是有效解决资本外流问题的治本之策。
This paper intercepts the statistical data of about 10 years from 1999 to 2007 and makes use of the dynamic panel data model to analyze the interdependence between the average savings of the 11 provinces (cities, districts) in the east and the west, the deposit-loan difference per capita and the economic growth Empirical Research. The result of the study confirms the concrete manifestation of the “capital return” phenomenon of the development economist Myurdal in our country. Under the function of market forces, part of the western capital has left the country and flowed continuously to the eastern region. The root cause of this phenomenon lies in the regional financial gap. In other words, relative to the eastern part, the financial markets in the western region have a weak foundation, a sluggish growth rate and low capital interest rates. These factors have an inhibitory effect on the development of the regional economy. Therefore, vigorously improving the financial environment in the western region is undoubtedly the most effective solution to the problem of capital outflow.