论文部分内容阅读
为提高大中型灌区水资源管理水平,引入模糊综合评价及信息熵方法,建立了考虑降雨、径流及地下水等多水源的灌区水文干旱预警系统。预警系统以现状水文干旱评估和未来水源形势分析为两大基础,针对其中未来水源形势的非确定性,采用超越概率方法进行处理,评估给出未来多种情况下的可能干旱水平,并进入下一个计算环节,从而较大程度的避免了预测的片面性。最终整合现状干旱指标和未来形势指标形成干旱预警指标DAI,并以不同颜色灯号表示预警等级。以泾惠渠灌区水文干旱预警为例,选取典型干旱年份对预警流程及关键技术指标进行分析示例,结果表明其能够反映干旱发生发展的蠕变特性,表明该预警方法合理清晰,具有简单易用的特点。
In order to improve the level of water resources management in large and medium-sized irrigation districts, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and information entropy method are introduced to establish an early warning system for hydrological droughts in irrigation districts that take into account multiple water sources such as rainfall, runoff and groundwater. Early warning system based on the current situation of hydrological and drought assessment and future water situation analysis as the two major basis for the future uncertainty of the water situation, the use of excess probability method for processing to assess the potential for a variety of future conditions given the level of drought and into the next A calculation link, thus largely avoiding the one-sidedness of the forecast. Finally, the current status of drought indicators and the integration of the formation of indicators of future drought indicators of drought DAI, and different color lights that warning level. Taking early warning of hydrological drought in Jinghuiqu Irrigation District as an example, this paper analyzes the early warning process and key technical indicators in a typical drought year. The results show that it can reflect the creep characteristics of drought and development, indicating that the early warning method is reasonable and clear and easy to use specialty.