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认清甘肃省的能源消费及碳排放特征对于实现“节能减排”目标制定具有重要的意义。文中在分析甘肃省1990～2009年能源碳排放量及其构成的基础上,利用IPAT等式分析了能源碳排放量中人类活动的影响,并对甘肃省未来的经济发展与碳排放量进行了情景预测。结果表明:在人口、收入和碳排放强度的共同作用下,2009年的能源碳排放量达到了3684.54×104t,为1990年的2.54倍。能源碳排放量的构成主要取决于能源消费结构的变化,通过能源结构调整促进低碳经济发展,还有巨大的潜力可挖。根据“脱钩”理论分析表明,甘肃省的碳排放还处于弱减物质化阶段,经济发展是以生态环境恶化为代价的,着力引进并发展可再生能源技术,有利于甘肃省实现可持续发展。
Recognizing the characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Gansu Province is of great significance for realizing the goal of “energy saving and emission reduction”. Based on the analysis of energy carbon emission and its composition in Gansu Province from 1990 to 2009, this paper analyzed the impact of human activities on energy carbon emission by using IPAT equation, and analyzed the future economic development and carbon emissions in Gansu Province Scenario prediction. The results show that under the combined effect of population, income and intensity of carbon emissions, energy carbon emissions in 2009 reached 3684.54 × 104t, 2.54 times that of 1990. The composition of energy carbon emissions mainly depends on the changes in energy consumption structure, through the energy structure adjustment to promote the development of low-carbon economy, there is great potential to dig. According to “decoupling ” theoretical analysis shows that carbon emissions in Gansu Province is still weakening materialization stage, economic development is at the cost of deterioration of the ecological environment, efforts to introduce and develop renewable energy technologies are conducive to the realization of sustainable development in Gansu Province development of.