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采用基于超椭球模型的故障树分析方法来解决飞机液压刹车系统故障树中底事件故障率概率统计信息不充足的问题,并对该系统进行可靠性评估。根据液压刹车系统原理和故障机理建立系统故障树,引入超椭球模型来描述底事件不确定性,推导了系统顶事件失效概率以及各底事件重要度基于双层蒙特卡洛法的仿真流程,并与区间模型下故障树分析进行对比。结果表明:超椭球模型下的故障树分析只需要底事件失效概率取值范围,而不要求精确的概率统计信息,且相对于区间模型,其结果更加精细,更加符合工程实际。同时通过底事件重要性测度分析可以确定关键失效事件,为刹车系统改设计及重点维护提供指导。
Fault tree analysis based on hyper-ellipsoid model is used to solve the problem of insufficient probability statistics of failure probability of the bottom event in the fault tree of the aircraft hydraulic brake system. And the reliability assessment of the system is carried out. According to the principle of hydraulic brake system and fault mechanism, a system fault tree is established. The hyperellipsoid model is introduced to describe the uncertainty of the bottom event. The probability of event failure and the importance of each event are deduced. Based on the double Monte Carlo method, And compared with the fault tree analysis under the interval model. The results show that the fault tree analysis under the hyperellipsoid model only needs the probability range of failure probability of the bottom event, and does not require accurate probability statistical information. Compared with the interval model, the result of the fault tree analysis is finer and more in line with engineering practice. At the same time, the critical failure event can be identified through the measurement of the importance of the bottom event to provide guidance for the design of the brake system and the key maintenance.