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利用鄱阳湖流域“五大”入湖河流控制水文站实测水沙资料,探讨了鄱阳湖流域1961—2006年水沙变化特征及其演变趋势,在此基础上应用线性回归分析方法揭示了鄱阳湖流域水沙演变过程对流域降水的响应。研究结果表明,1961—2006年鄱阳湖流域降水量和入湖径流量总体略呈上升趋势,降水日数呈下降趋势,表明降水强度增加、降水时间分布不均匀更加明显。鄱阳湖流域降水和径流基本符合幂函数关系。相关分析结果显示,鄱阳湖入湖泥沙总量和径流量、降水量、降水强度均具有很好的正相关关系,水体中的泥沙含量和径流系数具有很好的负相关性,说明流域降水量和降水强度均对流域产沙量和输沙量有促进作用;流域月降水量与月输沙量基本符合幂函数关系,进一步说明了流域产沙量是降水量和降水强度综合作用的结果。
Based on the measured data of water and sediment in the Poyang Lake Basin and the “Big Five” into the river control hydrological station, the characteristics of water and sediment changes and their evolution trends in Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2006 are discussed. Based on this, the linear regression analysis method is used to reveal that Poyang Response of Water and Sediment Evolution in the Basin to Precipitation. The results show that the total precipitation and runoff in Poyang Lake Basin increased slightly from 1961 to 2006, and the days of precipitation showed a decreasing trend, which indicated that the precipitation intensity increased and the distribution of precipitation time was even more obvious. The precipitation and runoff in Poyang Lake Basin are basically in accordance with the power function. Correlation analysis showed that there was a good positive correlation between total amount of sediment entering the lake and runoff, precipitation and precipitation intensity in Poyang Lake. Sediment content and runoff coefficient in water body had a good negative correlation, indicating that the basin Both precipitation and precipitation intensity have a positive effect on the sediment yield and sediment load in the drainage basin. The monthly precipitation and monthly sediment load are basically in accordance with the power function, further illustrating that sediment yield in the basin is the combined effect of precipitation and precipitation intensity result.