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本文首先分析了欧元区存在政策配合困境,然后说明了在过去的十年里,面对政策配合的困境,成员国采取了违反《稳定与增长公约》财政约束的权宜之计。在“不对称冲击”不严重的情况下,违反财政约束的做法未导致严重的“搭便车”问题,因而没有影响欧元区的稳定。但这并非长久之计。文章最后说明了当前欧元区政策配合困境尤存,只有进行相应的改革,才能使成员国彻底摆脱政策配合的困境。鉴于这些改革的艰巨性与长期性,政策配合的难题将长期困扰欧元区。考虑到欧元区是政治的产物,目前成员国对一体化有很强的政治决心,加之欧元已经取得了市场的信任。因此,除非欧元区发生影响难以估量的不对称冲击,否则政策配合的困境不会严重威胁欧元区的稳定。
This article first analyzes the plight of policy coordination in the Eurozone and then shows that in the past ten years, member states have adopted expedients for violating the fiscal constraints of the Stability and Growth Pact in the face of the plight of policy coordination. In the absence of “asymmetric shocks”, the violation of financial constraints did not lead to serious “free-riding” issues and therefore did not affect the stability of the euro area. But this is not a long-term plan. At the end of the article, it shows that the current Eurozone policies are in the same predicament, and only through corresponding reforms can the member countries get rid of the plight of policy coordination. In view of the arduousness and long-term nature of these reforms, the difficulties of policy coordination will long plague the euro area. Given that the euro area is a product of politics, the current member states have a strong political resolve for integration and the euro has gained market trust. Therefore, unless there is an asymmetrical impact in the euro zone that is incalculable, the plight of policy coordination will not seriously threaten the stability of the euro zone.