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本文运用增长账户模型方法对中国实际GDP增长自2008年全球金融危机以来经历的显著趋势性下滑进行了系统分析。我们得到的主要结论是:(1)中国自2008年以来实际GDP增长的下降几乎完全来自全要素生产率增长的下降;(2)市场化改革的滞后导致全要素生产率增长的下滑,扩大投资则进一步加速了全要素生产率增长的下滑进程;(3)当前,中国经济已滑入索罗下行通道。在这种情况下,中国经济可能需要经历一个有管理的硬着陆,即一次伴随着大规模“去投资”(资本形成率及固定资产投资率的大幅下降)和大规模就业调整的实质性再平衡与市场化改革,从而来推动经济重新进入一个可持续的有效的增长轨道。
This article uses the growth account model approach to systematically analyze the notable decline in the real GDP growth experienced by China since the 2008 global financial crisis. The main conclusions we get are: (1) the decline in real GDP growth in China has come almost entirely from the decline in total factor productivity growth since 2008; (2) the lag in market-oriented reforms has led to a decline in total factor productivity growth and further investment expansion Accelerating the decline of total factor productivity growth; and (3) at present, China’s economy has slipped into the downward spiral of Solo. Under such circumstances, the Chinese economy may need to experience a managed hard landing, accompanied by a large-scale “go-to-investment” (the sharp drop in the rate of capital formation and fixed asset investment) and the realignment of large-scale employment adjustments Rebalancing and market-oriented reforms to push the economy back into a sustainable and effective growth path.