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以亚科维耶洛模型为基础,构建一个封闭条件下的包含厂商、零售商、存款家庭、贷款家庭和中央银行等五部门的新凯恩斯主义动态一般均衡模型,以分析房地产业对实体经济的影响,分析结果显示:由于大量货币通过信贷渠道流向房地产行业,引起房价上涨,在需求方面,高涨的房价挤占了居民的消费,进而抑制总需求;在供给方面,高涨的房价由于给房地产业带给远离于其他产业的超额利润,诱使大量资本退出实体经济而进入房地产业,导致实体经济投资下降,从而抑制总供给。宽裕的房地产信贷政策加剧了这一过程。因此,当前我国要合理地运用房地产信贷政策,严格信贷条件,防止房地产业对实体经济的过度掠夺。
Based on the Yakovilo model, this paper constructs a new general Keynesian dynamic equilibrium model involving five sectors of firms, retailers, depositors, loan families and the central bank under closed conditions to analyze the real estate industry’s impact on the real economy As a result, a large amount of money flows to the real estate industry through credit channels, causing the housing prices to rise. On the demand side, the rising house prices have squeezed the residents’ consumption and thus the total demand. As for the supply, To excess profits away from other industries, inducing a large number of capital out of the real economy and into the real estate, leading to a decline in real economy investment, thereby curbing aggregate supply. Ample real estate credit policies exacerbate this process. Therefore, at present, our country should make rational use of the real estate credit policy, strictly regulate the credit conditions and prevent the real estate industry from over-plundering the real economy.