目前,受全球流动性有望进一步宽松的预期推动,避险资产与风险资产价格齐涨。正常情况下,避险资产与风险资产的价格走势是相反的。然而今年上半年,无论是美国国债、黄金等避险资产,还是美国股市、原油等风险资产,其价格都呈现波动中显著上涨的态势。我们认为,在全球经济依然低迷、真实需求依然疲弱的背景下,全球风险资产价格走强,主要源自对全球流动性状况可能进一步宽松的预期。事实上, At present, due to the expected global liquidity is expected to further easing, hedge assets and risky assets prices soaring. Under normal circumstances, the price movements of the safe-haven assets and the risky assets are opposite. However, in the first half of this year, both the safe-haven assets such as the U.S. treasury bonds and gold and the risk assets such as the U.S. stock market and crude oil showed significant increases in their prices. In the context of the global economic downturn and weak real demand, we think the stronger global risk asset prices are mainly derived from the expectation that the global liquidity situation may be further relaxed. In fact,