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2011年第3季度天然橡胶市场走势略微呈现先扬后抑的局面,沪胶指数波动幅度要明显大于日胶指数,这主要受国内货币政策和全球宏观经济形势的影响。欧美在极力挽救脆弱的市场,10月天然橡胶市场可能有一定的喘息机会,但市场的整体压力没有消除,预计天然橡胶市场弱势格局难以改善。综合来看,2011年第4季度天然橡胶基本面仍将让位于宏观面,10月市场或进行技术性修复,但中长期仍存在下探需求,预计10月沪胶指数将在25000～31000元区间内波动,走势略偏多。第4季度沪胶指数整体走势呈先扬后抑的概率较大,向上可能挑战33000元的高位,向下可能考验22000～23000元的支撑价位。
In the third quarter of 2011, the natural rubber market showed slight ups and downs and the Hujiao Index fluctuated significantly more than the daily plastic index, mainly due to the influence of the domestic monetary policy and the global macroeconomic situation. Europe and the United States are trying their best to save the fragile market. In October, the natural rubber market may have a chance to breathe. However, overall market pressures have not been eliminated. Weak conditions in the natural rubber market are not expected to improve. Taken together, the fourth quarter of 2011, natural rubber fundamentals will still give way to the macro side, the market in October or technical repair, but in the long-term there is still a probe demand is expected in October Hujiao index will be 25,000 to 31,000 yuan Range fluctuations, the trend is slightly more. The overall trend of Hujiao Index in Q4 is that there is a high probability that Xiangyang will be repressed and the upward trend may challenge the high of 33000 yuan and the downward support may test the support price of 22000 ~ 23000 yuan.