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本文通过数学模型分析网络舆情事件的可控性和筛选。首先,基于对舆情事件指标体系的分析和提取,选取舆情事件的点击量,转载量和评价量作为筛选指标;通过对舆情事件点击量函数的分析,提出把舆情事件区分为潜伏期、发展期和发热期的分界时间点计算公式,进而又把发热期的热点事件区分为可控、相对可控的难控事件;其次,定义了舆情事件的参照标准速率及热度值时间点,给出了筛选热点舆情事件的算法。最后,以“昆明市反对PX项目”、“昆明南博会”、“上海男子持械持枪”、“刘志军受贿”、“考生父亡隐瞒”事件为例,对它们的点击量和评价量进行了分时段统计,筛选和可控性分析。结果表明:“昆明市反对PX项目”为相对可控的热点事件,“刘志军受贿”为可控热点事件。
This article analyzes the controllability and screening of network public opinion events through mathematical models. First of all, based on the analysis and extraction of the index system of public opinion events, we select the clicks, reloads and ratings of public opinion events as the screening index. By analyzing the hits function of public opinion events, we propose to divide the public opinion events into the latent period, the development period and Then the hot events in the fever period are divided into controllable and relatively controllable refractory events. Secondly, the reference standard rate of the public opinion events and the time point of the heat value are defined, and the screening Hot public opinion events algorithm. Finally, the “Kunming opposition PX project”, “Kunming Southern Expo”, “Shanghai man armed with a gun”, “Liu Zhijun bribe”, “Candidates father conceal” event was Cases, their hits and evaluation of the amount of time-period statistics, screening and controllability analysis. The results show that “Kunming opposed PX project” is a relatively controllable hot event, and “Liu Zhijun bribe” is a controllable hot event.