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回顾了金属茂催化烯烃聚合技术在高分子合成领域取得的重大进展和乙丙橡胶生产技术进步情况。新一代聚烯烃塑料和弹性体正在冲击传统合成橡胶市场，把合成橡胶界的大公司卷进新技术开发大潮。看来，廿一世纪的合成橡胶将主要由高效率低污染的气相聚合来生产；我国合成橡胶工业技术同世界先进水平的差距将进一步扩大。我国引进传统合成橡胶生产技术和装置宜慎重。从中长期看，苯乙烯－丁二烯共聚物同ＰＶＣ和ＥＰＤＭ比较，更容易被新一代聚烯烃取代［２７］。ＴＰＥｓ专业生产公司ＡＥＳ的发言人称，尽管金属茂催化技术将生产出比现在的共混材料更均匀的ＴＰＥｓ，但是它们不可能完全代替目前的聚烯烃类ＴＰＥｓ，因为它们达不到１３０℃或１３５℃的耐热性和现有ＴＰＥｓ的耐油性和耐压缩永久变形性；因此只能作为一种弹性体相用以增强ＴＰＥｓ的性能［２８］。北美ＴＰＥｓ价格趋升，如聚烯烃类ＴＰＥｓ的平均价格已从１９８５年的３．０６美元／公斤升至１９９４年４．０３４美元／公斤，预计２０００年将升至４．８２８美元／公斤。综上所述，新一代聚烯烃正在冲击传统合成橡胶市场；但由于世界合成橡胶总需求在近期将大于总供给，这种冲击到廿一世纪才会变得比较明显；所以，这一领域的大公司都抓?
The major progress made in the field of polymer synthesis in the metallocene-catalyzed olefin polymerization technology and the progress in the production technology of ethylene-propylene-butadiene rubber are reviewed. The new generation of polyolefin plastics and elastomers is impacting the traditional synthetic rubber market, bringing large companies in the synthetic rubber industry into the tide of new technology development. It seems that the 21st century synthetic rubber will be mainly produced by high-efficiency and low-pollution gas phase polymerization; the gap between China’s synthetic rubber industry technology and the world advanced level will further widen. China’s introduction of traditional synthetic rubber production technology and equipment should be cautious. In the medium to long term, styrene-butadiene copolymers are more easily replaced by new generation polyolefins than PVC and EPDM [27]. A spokesperson for AES, a professional manufacturer of TPEs, said that although metallocene catalyst technology will produce more uniform TPEs than current blended materials, they cannot completely replace current polyolefin-based TPEs because they do not reach 130°C or 135°C. The heat resistance of °C and the oil resistance and compression set resistance of existing TPEs can therefore only be used as an elastomeric phase to enhance the performance of TPEs [28]. The price of North American TPEs has risen. For example, the average price of polyolefin-based TPEs has increased from 3.06 USD/kg in 1985 to 4.045 USD/kg in 1994, and is expected to rise to 4.828 USD/kg in 2000. In summary, a new generation of polyolefins is impacting the traditional synthetic rubber market; but since the total demand for synthetic rubber in the world will be greater than the total supply in the near future, this impact will not become apparent until the 21st century; therefore, this area Big companies are caught?