一、年比:预计2003/2004年度全球小麦贸易量为9760万吨,比2002/2003年度下降760万吨。估计全球小麦产量下降350万吨,并且全球小麦消耗量下降1280万吨。由于预计消耗量依然超过产量,因此预计全球小麦库存量下降到1.403亿吨。二、月比:今年7月全球小麦贸易量略低于上月。预计全球 Year on Year: The global wheat trade is projected at 97.6 million tonnes in 2003/2004, a decrease of 7.6 million tonnes from 2002/2003. Global wheat production is estimated to have fallen 3.5 million tons and global wheat consumption has dropped 12.8 million tons. As the consumption is still expected to exceed production, global wheat stocks are expected to have dropped to 140.3 million tonnes. Second, the monthly ratio: July global wheat trade volume slightly lower than last month. Expected global