论文部分内容阅读
一年前的10月8日,具有上百年历史的美国雷曼兄弟公司宣布倒闭,在全球金融市场掀起惊涛骇浪,世界主要央行联手降息。一年后的今天,全球经济趋稳的迹象初现,即使是那些被称为“末日先生”或者“末日博士”的人,也承认世界经济正在复苏。作为官方的代表,国际货币基金组织在10月初发布的《全球经济展望》中认为各国采取的宏观经济政策已经发挥效力,以中国的强劲复苏为代表,世界经济已经渡过了最糟糕的时期,欧洲经济增长的预测亦被调高。在连续第五个月维持指标利率在1.0%不变后,欧洲央行行长特里谢称在利率决策会议后称,当前利率水平依然恰当,欧元区经济正在稳定下来,预期将以渐进的步伐复苏。的确,在政府、央行、企业和消费者的共同努力下,全球经济得以避免上世纪30年代那样的大萧条,但那些大刀阔斧的措施具有多大的可持续性?那些广受赞誉的“良方”到底是治标还是治本?这在很大程度上决定了经济复苏能够走多远。
A year ago, on October 8, the 100-year-old United States Lehman Brothers Corporation declared its collapse, setting off a stormy storm in global financial markets and the world’s major central banks jointly cut interest rates. One year from now, the signs of a stabilizing global economy are beginning to emerge. Even those who are known as “Mr. Doomsday” or “Dr. Doomsday” acknowledge that the world economy is recovering. As the official representative, the Global Economic Outlook promulgated by the IMF in early October considers the macroeconomic policies adopted by all countries have become effective. Taking the strong recovery of China as the representative, the world economy has passed its worst period, The forecast of European economic growth has also been raised. After keeping interest rates unchanged at 1.0% for the fifth consecutive month, ECB President Trichet said after the interest rate decision meeting that the current interest rate level is still appropriate and the economy of the euro area is stabilizing and is expected to be at a gradual pace recovery. Indeed, with the concerted efforts of governments, central banks, businesses and consumers, the global economy has been able to avert the Great Depression of the 1930s, but how sustainable are the drastic measures? The widely acclaimed “ ”In the end is a temporary solution or a permanent cure?" This largely determines how far the economic recovery can go.