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本文从宏观经济、消费市场、居民家庭三个层面分析了上海消费需求变化态势(1978～2008)。分析结果表明,上海扩大消费需求有很大发展空间。2007年上海最终消费率和居民消费率比香港分别低18.6%和13.4%。2008年上海零售总额/生产总值相对指数值为0.918弱于北京1.213。上海消费需求均衡模型表明,改善国民收入分配,增加劳动者报酬,缩小贫富差距,将有力促进消费需求。投入产出分析表明,扩大消费需求,将促进批发零售业、金融保险业、食品制造业、教育事业等行业加速发展,促进服务产业发展和产业转型。
This article analyzes the changing trend of Shanghai’s consumer demand (1978 ~ 2008) from three aspects: macroeconomy, consumer market and household. The analysis shows that there is great room for development in Shanghai to expand consumer demand. In 2007, the final consumption rate and household consumption rate in Shanghai were 18.6% and 13.4% lower than those in Hong Kong respectively. In 2008, Shanghai’s retail sales value / GDP relative index was 0.918 weaker than Beijing’s 1.213. Shanghai’s equilibrium model of consumer demand shows that improving national income distribution, increasing worker compensation and narrowing the gap between rich and poor will strongly promote consumer demand. Input-output analysis shows that expanding consumer demand will accelerate the development of industries such as wholesale and retail, finance and insurance, food manufacturing and education, and promote the development of service industries and industrial restructuring.