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分析了基于损失的Bayes检验方法和基于风险的SPOT(sequential posterior odd test)方法存在的不足.对装备试验与评价中成败型产品的Bayes序贯检验,在给定的两类风险要求下,建立了基于验后概率的Bayes序贯检验模型(PBSTM),给出了模型的求解算法和实际验后风险的计算公式.最后结合装备可靠性分析案例,进行了示例分析,从数据上证明了PBSTM模型优越性和有效性.研究结果表明:PBSTM模型从理论上保证了序贯检验的结论同时满足小概率事件原理和两类风险要求,避免了现有假设检验方法存在的不足.
This paper analyzes the deficiencies of the loss-based Bayes test and the risk-based SPOT (sequential posterior odd test) method.For Bayes sequential test of equipment failures in equipment test and evaluation, under the given two types of risk requirements, Bayes sequential inspection model based on post-posteriori probability (PBSTM) is given, and the calculation formula of the model and actual post-inspection risk are given.Finally, the case analysis of equipment reliability is carried out and an example is given to illustrate the PBSTM Model superiority and validity.The results show that PBSTM model theoretically guarantees the conclusion of sequential test while satisfying the principle of small probability events and two types of risk requirements and avoids the shortcomings of existing hypothesis testing methods.