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2005年股改以来的中国股市新高不断。股指从2006年初至今翻了5倍。2007年来的5次加息不但没有对股市产生过多的负面影响,股指却在每次加息公布的第二交易日有所攀升。本文对这一现象的原因以及利率调整的有效性问题加以分析,认为投资者的非理性因素即羊群效应以及证券市场投资渠道少和股票市场供给不足是加息对股市的影响不明显的主要原因。
Since the stock reform in 2005, China’s stock market has been continuously high. The index has doubled since the beginning of 2006. Not only did the five rate hikes in 2007 not have too much negative impact on the stock market, the index rose at the second trading day after each rate hike. This paper analyzes the reasons for this phenomenon and the effectiveness of the interest rate adjustment. It is considered that the irrational factors of the investors, that is, the herding effect, the lack of investment channels in the securities market and the insufficient supply in the stock market are the main factors that have little effect on the stock market the reason.