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文章基于门槛回归模型,利用2001—2013年26个主要海运国家的面板数据,考察海运服务贸易开放度对其竞争力的门槛效应。研究发现,在分别以产业内贸易水平和海运运力为门槛变量模型中,海运服务贸易开放度对其竞争力的影响存在显著的三门槛效应,其中尤为值得注意的是,当海运运力从中上门槛区间过渡到高门槛区间时,海运服务贸易开放度对其竞争力的促进作用显著减弱。此外,分析结果还揭示出中国海运服务贸易产业内贸易水平相对较低而海运运力的总量规模已处于很高水平的现状。因此,中国应基于国内海运服务业发展现状,在适度开放原则的指导下,加快现代航运服务业的发展,同时积极优化海运运力结构,从而推动海运服务贸易的转型升级和整体竞争力的提升。
Based on the threshold regression model and using the panel data of 26 major seaports in 2001-2013, this paper investigates the threshold effect of the openness of seaborne services on its competitiveness. It is found that there are significant three threshold effects on the competitiveness of the seaborne service trade in the intra-industry trade level and seaborne shipping capacity as the threshold variable model. Among them, it is worth noting that when the maritime transport capacity goes from the upper threshold When the transition to the high threshold interval, the openness of maritime trade in services to promote their competitiveness significantly weakened. In addition, the analysis also reveals the relatively low level of intra-industry trade in China’s seaborne services trade and the fact that the total volume of maritime transport capacity is at a very high level. Therefore, China should speed up the development of modern shipping services under the guidance of the principle of proper liberalization while actively optimizing the structure of maritime shipping capacity, so as to promote the transformation and upgrading of shipping service trade and the enhancement of overall competitiveness.