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基于观测资料的分析和海－气耦合模式（ＣＧＣＭ）的数值模拟结果，提出关于ＥＮＳＯ发生机制的一个新观点：持续的强（弱）东亚冬季风将导致赤道西太平洋地区持续的西（东）风异常；而异常的赤道西（东）风可使得已在暖池区存在相当长一段时间的正（负）次表层海温距平（ＳＯＴＡ）向东传播；沿温跃层东传的正（负）ＳＯＴＡ将造成赤道东太平洋正（负）海表温度距平（ＳＳＴＡ）的出现和 Ｅ１ Ｎｉｎｏ（ＬａＮｉｎａ）事件的发生．当 ＥＮＳＯ发生之后， Ｅ１ Ｎｉｎｏ（Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ）事件的影响又将削弱（加强）东亚冬季风的活动．
Based on the analysis of observed data and the numerical simulation results of CGCM, a new view on the mechanism of ENSO is proposed. The persistent strong (weak) East Asian winter monsoon will lead to the continuous west (east) The anomaly of the equatorial west (east) wind can propagate the positive (negative) subsurface sea temperature anomaly (SOTA) which has been in the warm pool area for an extended period of time to the east; (Negative) SOTA will cause positive (negative) SSTA and E1 Nino (LaNina) events in the eastern equatorial Pacific. After ENSO, the impact of the E1 Nino (La Nina) incident will in turn weaken (intensify) East Asian winter monsoon activity.