本文首先分析了威慑与税收服从的关系以及税收刑事威慑的局限性。然后,分析了税收刑事威慑高度有效的条件:要求有较高的查获率和较高的定罪率。最后,本文分析了中国的税收刑事政策未能取得良好的威慑效果的原因:一是缺乏统一而明确的起诉政策;二是缺乏相关的人力资产;三是制度上的缺陷。 This article first analyzes the relationship between deterrence and tax compliance and the limitations of tax criminal deterrence. Then, it analyzes the highly effective tax criminal deterrent conditions: require a higher detection rate and a higher conviction rate. Finally, this article analyzes the reasons why China’s tax criminal policy fails to achieve a good deterrent effect: first, it lacks a unified and clear policy of prosecution; second, it lacks related human assets; third, it is a systematic defect.