论文部分内容阅读
伊豆半岛及其周围地区发生的震群活动和其后发生强震的可能性之间的关系,是没有规律的。目前,我们还不能预报什么时候一个强震将要发生,但在研究了这个区域M≥5.8地震之后,获得了如下关系式: y=—40±0.9x 式中x为震群活动的开始日期和计算出来的M≥6破坏性地震预期发生日期的比较值,y为震群活动的开始日期和M≥6地震实际发生日期的比较值。当x为负值时用负号计算,当x=44时,y=0。换言之,假如震群活动的开始日期和计算所得的M≥6地震的发生日期之比较值为±44(天),则在震群活动的第一天后即将发生强震(M≥5.8)。
There is no law about the relationship between the earthquake swarm activity in Izu Peninsula and the surrounding areas and the possibility of subsequent strong earthquakes. At present, we can not predict when a strong earthquake will occur. However, after studying the M ≥ 5.8 earthquake in this area, the following relation is obtained: y = -40 ± 0.9x where x is the start date and Computed values of expected occurrences of M≥6 destructive earthquakes are expected. Y is the comparative value of the start date of earthquake swarm activities and the actual occurrence date of M≥6 earthquakes. When x is negative, a negative sign is used. When x = 44, y = 0. In other words, a strong earthquake (M≥5.8) is about to occur immediately after the first day of an earthquake swarm if the start date of the swarm and the calculated date of occurrence of the M≥6 earthquake are ± 44 (days).