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目的用季节移动平均数法预测医院住院人次。方法依据某院2006年-2008年住院人次,应用季节移动平均数法预测2009年1-4季度住院人次,并评价预测效果。结果使用季节移动平均数法所得2009年各季度住院人次的预测值较为精确,误差较小。结论季节移动平均数法简便易行,预测效果好,可为医院管理决策提供依据。
Objective To predict the number of hospital inpatients using the moving average method of season. Methods According to the number of inpatients from 2006 to 2008 in a hospital, the seasonal moving average method was used to predict the number of inpatients in the first to fourth quarters of 2009 and to evaluate the predictive effect. Results Using the seasonal moving average method, the predictions of inpatients in each quarter of 2009 were more accurate and with less error. Conclusions The seasonal moving average method is simple and easy to operate with good prediction effect, which can provide the basis for hospital management decision-making.