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随着全球气候变暖和全球极端气象、水文事件日益多发,沿海低地地区的产业系统面临着极端洪水等灾害的严重威胁。开展极端洪灾情景下沿海特大城市的产业经济损失评估,分析产业网络的波及效应,识别出产业空间损失最为严重的地带,可为沿海城市的气候变化适应和灾害风险管理提供新的思路与方法。以上海黄浦江极端洪灾模拟结果为灾害情景,基于2013年上海汽车制造业第三次经济普查微观数据,评估了上海汽车制造业受灾后的直接经济损失、停产损失,并结合投入—产出模型评估了上海汽车制造企业停产引发波及效应造成的产业关联损失。分析结果表明,在极端洪灾情景下:(1)上海市共有451家汽车制造企业受到灾害影响,占上海汽车制造企业总数的23.1%。(2)上海汽车制造业厂房建筑、生产设备、整车存货直接经济损失分别为3.1亿元、196.1亿元、9.7亿元。汽车整车制造企业、零部件及配件制造企业的停产损失分别为209.1亿元、69亿元,对相关产业分别造成了1037.6亿元、144.7亿元产业关联损失。受到相关产业停产、减产影响后,汽车整车制造、零部件及配件产业关联损失分别为120.9亿元、247.1亿元。产业关联损失明显大于停产损失和直接经济损失。(3)浦东新区生产设备直接经济损失和停产损失较为严重,分别为93.4亿元、221.7亿元,分别占全市的47.6%、79.7%。上海通用整车厂所在的浦东新区金桥镇停产损失为184.1亿元。(4)由于2.5~3.0 m洪水水深区间分布有两家大型整车厂,因此停产损失最为严重,高达255.2亿元。上海市各级政府需要进一步加强黄浦江、苏州河流域的防汛工程以及工业园区的防洪设施建设;相关企业需要制定周密的业务连续性规划,降低企业停产后波及效应衍生的系统性风险。
With global warming and extreme weather and hydrological events worldwide, industrial systems in the lowland areas of the coast are facing serious threats such as extreme floods and other disasters. Carrying on the assessment of industrial economic loss in metropolitan coastal areas in extreme flood scenarios, analyzing the spillover effects of industrial networks and identifying the areas with the most industrial loss in space can provide new ideas and methods for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management in coastal cities. Based on the micro-data of the third economic census of Shanghai auto industry in 2013, the simulation results of the extreme floods of the Huangpu River in Shanghai are used as a disaster scenario to evaluate the direct economic losses and loss of production after the disaster of the Shanghai auto industry and the input-output model Assessed the loss of associated industries caused by the spin-off caused by the shutdown of Shanghai automobile manufacturing enterprises. The analysis shows that under extreme flood scenarios: (1) A total of 451 automobile manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai were affected by disasters, accounting for 23.1% of the total number of automobile manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai. (2) The direct economic losses of Shanghai automobile manufacturing plant buildings, production equipment and complete vehicle inventory were 310 million yuan, 19.61 billion yuan and 970 million yuan respectively. Automobile production enterprises, spare parts and accessories manufacturing enterprises, respectively, the production loss of 20.91 billion yuan, 6.9 billion yuan, respectively, the related industries caused 103.76 billion yuan, 14.47 billion yuan industry-related losses. Affected by the shutdown of related industries and the impact of production cuts, the losses associated with automobile manufacturing, parts and accessories industry were 12.09 billion yuan and 24.71 billion yuan respectively. The loss of related industries was obviously greater than the loss of production and direct economic loss. (3) The direct economic losses and production stoppage losses of production equipment in Pudong New Area were more serious, accounting for 9.94 billion yuan and 22.17 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 47.6% and 79.7% of the total respectively. Shanghai GM plant where the Jinqiao Town, Pudong New Area, cut-off loss of 18.41 billion yuan. (4) Due to the distribution of 2.5 ~ 3.0 m flood depth interval between two large OEMs, the loss of production is the most serious, up to 25.52 billion yuan. Shanghai municipalities at all levels need to further strengthen the flood control projects in the Huangpu River and the Suzhou River and the construction of flood control facilities in industrial parks. Relevant enterprises need to make careful business continuity planning and reduce the systematic risk arising from the spillover effect after the enterprises stop production.