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文章应用ARIMA时间序列模型对闽台实际GDP增长率进行建模,并根据模型结论对2015~2020年闽台实际GDP增长率加以预测,同时根据闽台两地通货膨胀水平、人民币与新台币相对汇率变化趋势,设定四种可能情景,从而得出2015~2020年内闽台两地名义经济总量的对比,并针对福建现阶段发展主要问题就福建进一步提升经济总量举措给出相应对策建议。
The article uses the ARIMA time series model to model the real GDP growth rate of Fujian and Taiwan and predicts the real GDP growth rate of Fujian and Taiwan from 2015 to 2020 according to the model conclusion. Meanwhile, according to the inflation level between Fujian and Taiwan, RMB and NT are relative Exchange rate trends, set four possible scenarios to draw the 2015-2020 Fujian and Taiwan nominal economy total amount of comparison, and for the development of Fujian at this stage the major issues on Fujian to further enhance the economic aggregate measures to give the appropriate countermeasures .