在前不久召开的中国发展高层论坛年会上,全国政协副主席徐匡迪院士就中国的能源问题发表演讲,有几句话给我的印象极为深刻。他说,今天有很多外国经济学家和来宾在这里,我们坦率地说,现在所有发展中国家的人心里都不是很平衡。因为今天占世界人口八分之一的15个主要发达国家,他们发展到现在,已经消耗了世界上一半以上已知的矿产资源。剩下八分之七的人怎么用剩下的一半资源,这是一个很大的问题。我觉得,这番话隐含了一个重大命题:从资源供给角度看,中国面临日益突出的后发劣势。近十几年来,国内的专家、官员谈论中国的后发优势较多,而后发劣势较少涉及。后发优势理论认为,后发展的国家和地区由于可以直接吸收先进国家和地区的技术,并具有劳动力成本低的优势,因而只要企业在政府的保护下达到规模经济阶段,只要政府通过政策诱导企业在发展的每一个阶段都比较好地发挥其比较优势,就可能追赶或超越先进国家或地区。人们谈论最多的后发优势是技术赶超效应。也有专家谈到 At a recent meeting of China’s development high-level forum held last year, Xu Kuangdi, vice chairman of the CPPCC National Committee, gave a speech on China’s energy issue. There are a few words that gave me a very deep impression. He said that today there are many foreign economists and guests here, and we are frankly saying that all people in developing countries are not in the balance now. Because of today’s 15 major developed countries, which make up one eighth of the world’s population, they have, until now, already consumed more than half of the world’s known mineral resources. It is a big problem how the remaining seven-sevenths use the remaining half of the resources. In my opinion, the remark implies a major proposition: From an angle of resource supply, China is facing an increasingly prominent backward disadvantage. In the past decade or so, domestic experts and officials talked about China having more backward advantages and fewer subsequent disadvantages. Afterward advantage theory that post-development countries and regions can directly absorb the advanced countries and regions, and has the advantage of low labor costs, so long as the government reached the stage of economies of scale under the protection of the government, as long as the government through policy-induced enterprises In each stage of development are better to play its comparative advantages, it may catch up or surpass advanced countries or regions. The advantage of late-talking people is the technology catching-up effect. Some experts also talked about