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2009年第三季度的沪胶走势呈现先扬后抑的格局,在政策刺激下汽车行业销售强劲推动沪胶演绎了一波强势上涨行情,但随后国内股市的回调及轮胎特保案的意外通过给予沪胶双重打击,导致沪胶价格回到7月初的起点。预计第四季度特保案带来的负面影响短期难以消化,而且是否会引发新的不利因素仍存在不确定性。国内库存居高不下,库存消化速度也将在特保案的拖累下明显受阻,这对市场的压力越来越明显。不过全球经济逐渐好转及汽车业逐渐走出低谷的基本面成为沪胶市场的重要支撑。短期内沪胶弱势格局仍难以改变,后期应重点关注国内政策的变化和国外市场对我国出口轮胎的态度,预计10月份沪胶波动区间在15 500～18 000元之间。
In the third quarter of 2009, the trend of Hujiao showed a pattern of ups and downs. After the stimulus of policies, the strong sales in the automobile industry pushed Hujiao to a strong upward trend. However, the subsequent correction of the domestic stock market and the special safeguard of tire Give Hujiao double blow, leading Hujiao prices back to the beginning of July. It is estimated that the negative impact of the special safeguard case in the fourth quarter will be hard to digest in the short term, and there is still uncertainty as to whether new negative factors will be triggered. Domestic stocks remain high, the stock digestion rate will also be significantly dragged down under the special safeguard case, the pressure on the market more and more obvious. However, the gradual improvement of the global economy and the gradual emergence of the automotive industry fundamentals become Hujiao an important support for the market. Hujiao weak pattern in the short term is still difficult to change, the latter should focus on changes in domestic policies and foreign markets on the attitude of China’s exports of tires is expected in October Hujiao fluctuations in the range of 15,500 to 18,000 yuan.