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以疏勒河流域为研究对象,依据1957～2008年径流、温度、降水资料,采用逐步回归分析法,分析疏勒河月径流影响因子的主次程度。结果表明:在非汛期(10月～次年5月),月径流最大影响因子是基流;在汛期(6～9月),月径流主要影响因子是温度和降水,其中6月份月径流最大影响因子是当月降水;7月份,由于冰雪融水的增加,月径流最大影响因子是当月温度;8月份月径流最大影响因子是当月温度和基流;9月份,由于1987年的气候突变,在1957～1986年,9月份月径流最大影响因子是当月降水,在1987～2008年,当月温度的影响程度增大,甚至超过了当月降水的影响。
Taking Shule River Basin as the research object and stepwise regression analysis method based on the runoff, temperature and precipitation data from 1957 to 2008, the primary and secondary influencing factors of monthly runoff in Shule River were analyzed. The results showed that the maximum monthly runoff factor was the base flow in the non-flood season (October to May), and the monthly and monthly runoff were the main influencing factors in the flood season (June-September) The influence factor is the precipitation in the current month; in July, the biggest monthly runoff influence factor is the monthly temperature due to the increase of melting snow and ice; the monthly maximum impact factor of month runoff in August is the monthly temperature and base flow; in September, due to the abrupt climate change in 1987, The largest monthly influencing factor of monthly runoff from 1957 to 1986 was the monthly precipitation in September. From 1987 to 2008, the impact of temperature on the month increased even more than the monthly precipitation.