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利用灰色关联度和GM(1,1)模型,分析1999—2010年中国内地31个省(区、市)经济增长与工业“三废”排放量的关联性,预测2011—2015年31个省(区、市)的工业“三废”排放量。结果表明,中国内地除北京外,30个省(区、市)的经济增长对环境污染有较强的影响,29个省(区、市)经济增长引起工业废气排放量较大。预计2011—2015年28个省(区、市)的工业废气排放量呈增加态势,5个省(区、市)的工业废水中化学需氧量排放量和工业固体废弃物排放量上升,仅有3个省(区、市)的工业“三废”排放量下降。因此,转变经济增长方式是各省(区、市)面临的紧迫任务,建议大力开发清洁能源,发展循环经济,建立严格的环境监管机制。
Using the gray relational degree and the GM (1,1) model, this paper analyzes the correlation between the economic growth in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China and the industrial “three wastes” emissions from 1999 to 2010, Provincial (autonomous regions and municipalities) industrial “three wastes ” emissions. The results show that the economic growth of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in Mainland China has a strong impact on environmental pollution except for Beijing, and the economic growth in 29 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) has caused a large amount of industrial emissions. It is estimated that industrial emissions in 28 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) will show an increasing trend in 2011-2015, and emissions of chemical oxygen demand and industrial solid waste will increase in industrial wastewater from 5 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), only increasing There are three provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) of the industrial “three wastes ” emissions declined. Therefore, transforming the mode of economic growth is an urgent task facing provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), and it is suggested that energetic development of clean energy, development of circular economy and establishment of a strict environmental regulatory mechanism should be vigorously carried out.