基于土壤水分变化率与贮水量成正比这一假定 ,得出了土壤水分的指数消退关系。在此基础上 ,建立了冬小麦生育期土壤墒情预报的经验递推模型 ,并对模型进行了检验 ,表明模型预报效果较好。该模型的特点是模型简单且参数较少 ;其主要局限性是模型中土壤水分消退系数地域、时域性较强 Based on the assumption that the rate of change of soil moisture is proportional to the amount of water stored, the exponential regression of soil moisture is obtained. On this basis, the empirical recursive model of soil moisture in the growth period of winter wheat was established and the model was tested, which showed that the model prediction effect was better. The model is characterized by simple model and few parameters; its main limitation is that the soil moisture regression coefficient in the model is in the region and the time domain is strong