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在钻井过程中,预测准地层压力对保证钻进安全、提高勘探开发效益起着极其重要的作用。现今预测地层压力最科学的方法是建立地质力学模型随钻预测地层压力,但由于我国油田现场随钻上传数据量少且上传速度慢,不可能通过地质力学模型的方法预测准地层压力。处理数据不确定性信息问题的灰理论的出现,使得在现有的信息条件下准确预测钻头下方地层压力成为了可能。本文基于灰色理论,通过建立起预测地层压力的灰色模型,根据已钻井段的随钻地层压力信息,随钻预测钻头下方未钻开地层的地层压力。
In the process of drilling, predicting the formation pressure plays an extremely important role in ensuring the safety of drilling and improving the efficiency of exploration and development. Nowadays, the most scientific method of predicting formation pressure is to establish the geomechanical model to predict the formation pressure while drilling. However, because of the small amount of up-drilling data and the slow upload speed, it is impossible to predict the formation pressure through the geomechanical model. The emergence of ash theory to deal with the problem of data uncertainty information makes it possible to accurately predict formation pressure under the existing information conditions. Based on the gray theory, a gray model of predicting formation pressure is established to predict the formation pressure of un-drilled formations beneath the drill bit according to the formation-pressure-information of the drilled sections.